The 2019 Conference Tournament Championship Pool Final Results

All the conference tournaments games are over, the brackets are out, and this brings the 9th year of our conference tournament pool to a close.  We had a ton of great games over the past 2 weeks, many upsets, some chalk, close games, and blow outs.  We have $1,500 paying out to 12 people.  Below are the final standing along with a snapshot of the money payouts.  If you won money please reach out to me and let me know how you want to be paid.

American Athletic and Big 10 Tournament Championship Game Preview

Yale was able to come back against Harvard late in the 2nd half and coasted to an easy victory.  You can get to the updated Standings by clicking on Standings, the Ivy League is updated.  The Sun Belt conference tournament championship game is in progress with (1) Georgia State vs. (2) UT-Arlington, everyone towards the top of the standings either already lost or has (1) Georgia State.  If Georgia State wins this game we will see 6 people in the top 10 jump over the 4 people that are already out.

American Athletic and Big 10 Conference

• In the American Athletic (1) Houston is the most impact win in terms of setting up our winner, (2) Cincinnati winning helps Sam I Am, Brad, and SJS hang on to the top spots
• But the entire pool will come down to the final conference tournament championship game in the Big 10.  Robb, Searcy, Sam I am, and Corey all have 2 points at stake if (3) Michigan can hold off (1) Michigan State.  If Michigan State wins, depending what happens with the other games in progress, TJH or I may end up winning this pool.
• So many people are still int he running for 1st place!

SEC Tournament Championship Game Preview

I will not be previewing the Atlantic 10 conference tournament championship game that starts at noon CST today because everyone except Andrew was knocked out of this conference.  With Andrew being in 28th and eliminated from everything, if (4) St. Bonaventure wins it doesn't have any overall impact to our pool.  You can get to the updated Standings by clicking on Standings, but we have not had any changes as the Ivy League game is still in the 2nd half.  As soon as the Ivy League game ends the standings will be updated.

SEC

• By far this is the most important tournament for our pool as we have 8 people on (3) Tennessee and no one on (5) Auburn.
• 5 of the top 10 people in the pool have Tennessee, which means bonus points are available
• A Tennessee win will make the remainder of the today a battle for 1st between TJH and Searcy
• Additionally, a Tennessee win will award people bonus points for the bonus point category payout as well as 2 points towards the power conference category payout.
• This is such a big game for our pool

Selection Sunday Preview

Today is Selection Sunday, one of the greatest days of the entire year, and we have 5 conference tournament championship games being played today.  I will do 3-4 blog updates today and I will post standings updates after each conference tournament game ends.  I did find a small calculation error in the excel file that was impacting bonus point losses and max points calculations, that has now been updated and slightly changed the standings.  This did not impact actual wins and actual bonus points.  You can get to the updated Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date prior to the Ivy League conference championship tip off.

Anyone that has been eliminated from being able to reach a top 4 spot has been grayed out on the standings file.  We have 13 people that can finish in the top 4, the number that can win the pool is smaller, but we have 25+ scenarios for 1st place.  While (6) Oregon secured the bonus point payout for lowest winning seed last night, the other categories are still up for grabs, so everyone has the ability to win some money today.

Ivy League

• (1) Harvard will match up against (2) Yale with the 1st championship game at 11:00 AM CST this morning
• As with all 5 championship games today, this one is very important because only 5 out of the 13 people in the running have Harvard, the other 8 have Yale
• I don't know the exact scenario, but a  Harvard loss will make it difficult for 5 people to finish in the top 4. 

Standings Updated

Shortest post ever.

You can get to the updated Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through Saturday night.

If you don't know who Collin Welp is, look him up.  U.C. Irvine.

Vermont and North Carolina Central Punch Tickets

We are 2 conference championship games in for today and in the America East we saw (1) Vermont easily dismantle UMBC and in the MEAC (3) North Carolina Central was able to beat the favorite Norfolk State.  We still have 12 more conference championship games today, plus many more semi-final games.  You can get to the updated Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through the MEAC conference championship.

I will continue to post updated standings throughout the evening today as we work our way through the remaining 12 conference championships being played today.  We have a lot of bonus point opportunities available with (3), (4), (5), and (6) seeds playing for championships!

A Day of Championship Games - Morning Preview

Below is a short preview of the Saturday morning and afternoon conference championship games.  If I can find some time I'll post a second blog today going over the late afternoon/evening conference championship games.  You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through the end of Friday night.

America East

• We have a 10:00 AM CST championship game to get things started early.
• 9 people have potential bonus points if (3) UMBC can win, but most of our pool picked (1) Vermont.

MEAC

• At noon CST we have another match up with potential bonus points as (1) Norfolk State take on (3) North Carolina Central.
• Norfolk State is our pool favorite with 44.12% of the picks and the Team Rankings favorite with a 32.55% chance to win the conference tournament.
• North Carolina Central has won this championship the past 2 years.
• Between these two early morning championship games, if the bonus points come through on both we'll start to see major standings separation.

Starting at 5:00 PM CST today through 11:00 PM CST we will see 12 more conference championship games tip off, I will attempt to do some sort of preview for those.  At the very least we'll have updated standings posted after the MEAC conference championship game.

Favorites Going Down as we go in to the Final Two Days

The past few days was all about trying to take the least amount of losses as possible to ensure you're set up for the final 2 days of championship games.  We saw many 1 and 2 seeds go down the past few days, meaning that now bonus points are up for grabs over the next few days.  It was pretty brutal watching all our teams get eliminated the past few days.

We'll make this update all about looking at the standing and how things set up from a numbers perspective over the next few days.  You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through Friday night with 4 games still to be played tonight.  I will post updated standings in the morning.

• Chris Iannuzzi is in 1st place with 2 days left and I am in complete shock, he's even in great position from a Max Points perspective.
• Jenn is is 2nd place, it's like a bizzaro world with the standings right now.
• John, Brad, Wattles, and Kevdurks all have 5 wins as well, but Max Points is not in great shape for them.
• All the people tied with 4 points are in great shape to overtake all the people with 5 points due to the Max Points being much higher.

I'll try my best to get a blog post in the morning previewing some of the Saturday championship games, but we have so many going on I may not have the time to talk through them all.

Colgate Claims the Patriot League Championship Title

(1) Colgate easily defeated (2) Bucknell to claim the Patriot League championship.  12 tickets have now been punched and we are 1/3 of the way through our pool.  We'll have a break from championship games over the next 2 days, but once we get to Saturday and Sunday the remaining 20 will be played.  

Standings

You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through the most of Wednesday, still have a late night PAC 12 game.  10 days in to conference tournament week and the leader(s) still only have 5 points.  Over the next few days I probably will not post any blogs, but I will continue to update the standings.  

Patriot League Conference Championship Game Preview

We only have 1 conference tournament championship game today and it is the Patriot League championship game between (1) Colgate and (2) Bucknell.  After tonight's championship game we will not have another one until Saturday.  Even though Bucknell was the Team Rankings Favorite with a 36.70% chance to win, bonus point team (3) Lehigh was our pool favorite with 11 picks, but they lost in the Quarterfinals.  For those remaining, we have a fairly even split between Colgate and Bucknell.  A Colgate win will tighten up the standings even more, a Bucknell win will start to separate the standings just a little.













Even though we only have 1 conference tournament championship game today, we still have 30+ conference championship games today starting as early as 10:30 AM CST with the last one starting at 10:30 PM CST.  As I scan through the games, unless a big upset or two happens, we shouldn't see any losses outside of the Patriot League conference championship game.

Standings

You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through the end of Tuesday night.  Here are a few reminders when looking at the standings as we close in on the last 5 days of conference tournament play.

• We are going to quickly come to a point where people are eliminated from being able to finish 1st-4th.  As people are eliminated I will gray out the name.  It's just math that at some point you will have similar picks to people ahead of you and mathematically not be able to get into spots 1-4.
• Even if you are eliminated from finishing 1st-4th, 4 categories of bonus points are still available
• The bonus point leaders right now only have 1 bonus point, that is not going to win that category.  So even if you are eliminated, if you can get a couple 3 or lower seeds to win you're looking at $100
• Additionally, a 4 seed is the lowest seed to win so far, that has not won it in the past.  We still have people in the pool that picked (5) Virginia Tech, (5) George Mason, (7) Duquesne, (5) Iowa State, (7) Oklahoma, (7) St John's, (5) Maryland, (6) Marshall, (5) Central Michigan, (6) Oregon. (5) Lamar, (5) Grambling State, and (5) Cal State Bakersfield.  Odds are pretty good that at least 1 of those teams steals a conference tournament championship.
• $150 is up for grabs to whomever gets the most Power Conference Points, everyone is alive for that as the Power Conferences are just getting underway
• If all the above fails, on Selection Sunday the SEC Championship game will be played, the person who gets the total score accurate/closest wins $50, so even last place can recoup money.



OMG Gonzaga Goes Down!

The best part of college basketball is that none of this shit is predictable.  Gonzaga, favored to win the conference championship game by 15+ points got destroyed by Saint Mary's and was never really in this game at all.  We crowned 5 more champions today, Four (2) seeds and One (4) seed, so bonus points were awarded.

 

 

Standings

You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through the end of Tuesday night.  It's incredible that we are 9 days into conference tournaments and our leader only has 5 points.  No matter where you are at in the standings, you are still in this, we have never seen only 5 points this far in.  We will only have 1 championship game over the next 3 days, so the standings will only change slightly as people lose points.

• We have 5 players tied with 5 points
• Brad Snead is now in 1st and has the best winning % which means he's not losing many teams
• Jenn is in 2nd place!
• I can't believe I am typing this, but Chris Iannuzzi is in 3rd place (He had Saint Mary's)
• Wattles and Kevdurks round out the 4th and 5th spot, both there because of bonus points

5 Conference Championship Games Tonight - Aardvark Tina Special

Prior to the 10+ conference championship games on Saturday, today is one of the most important days for our conference tournament pool as we have 5 conference tournament championships being played.  Unless some craziness happens, which is very possible this year, after tonight's games we will see well defined separation in the standings and it will be very clear who  our front runners are, and who needs to play catch up.  We may even have 3-5 people who are completely eliminated.  Aardvark Tina predicted this, we will be all chalk this year, so let's see her 1 and 2 seeds pay off tonight in these chalky match-ups.


Colonial Conference

• Chalk match-up between (1) Hofstra and (2) Northeastern.
• Hofstra is our pool favorite at 38.24% of the picks, Team Rankings gave Hofstra a 38.54% chance to win the tournament before it tipped off.
• We do have 7 people that picked Northeastern, so overall this will be a very important win in our pool.
• Northeastern is favored by 2 points.

Northeast Conference

• Another chalk match-up between (1) St. Francis PA and (2) Fairleigh Dickinson.
• Fairleigh Dickinson is our pool favorite at 26.47% of the picks, however Team Ranking gave St. Francis PA a 34.17% chance to win prior to the tip off of this conference tournament.
• Over half of the people were eliminated in this conference, so just as the Colonial, this is going to be a very important win in our pool.
• St. Francis PA is favored by 4 points.

Horizon League

• Our 3rd chalk match-up of the night will feature (1) Wright State vs. (2) Northern Kentucky.
• Wright State is our pool favorite at 35.29% of the picks, however Northern Kentucky was Team Rankings prediction before tip off with a 41.23% chance to win.
• Northern Kentucky is lucky to be playing in this game as they had to win last night on a 3 pointer buzzer beater.
• As with the CAA and NEC championships, this is another big impact to our pool
• Vegas has this game as a pick



West Coast Conference

• Any doubt that (1) Gonzaga wins this?  I am not even going to go through any of our pool stats or find a nice picture.  Everyone gets a free win, except Chris, he picked (2) Saint Mary's. 

Summit League

•  Our final championship game brings us our only non chalk match-up of the night with (2) Nebraska-Omaha vs. (4) North Dakota State.
• The clear pool and Team Rankings favorite (1) South Dakota State was knocked out in the Quarterfinals, this opens up the door to bonus points for 3 people if North Dakota State wins.  I assume those 3 guys picked North Dakota State on accident because they couldn't remember which Dakota Mike Daum played for.
• If North Dakota State wins, Wattles will need to split hi "Lowest Winning Seed" pot with 3 other guys.
• Vegas has Nebraska-Omaha winning by 3 points.

Overall, if things fall the right way, the standings are really going to move and we'll see some major separation.  John Nazzaro, already in 1st place, has the chance to get to 6 points by the end of the night tonight.   But Andrew Husted, Brad Snead, Jenn, and Searcy, in  2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th places currently, have the ability to get to 7 points by the end of the night tonight.  They cannot all get 7 points, as they all have different combinations of teams.  Pengin Pro, currently in last place, has the opportunity to rack up 4 points tonight and jump right into the middle of the pack.  That is how quickly things can change for someone tonight. 



Wofford Wins the SoCon and Iona Wins the MAAC

The Southern Conference championship game was very close until the last 2 minutes as (1) Wofford beat (2) UNC Greensboro.  UNC Greensboro was winning for the entire game and then blew it towards the end as Wofford started hitting every 3 pointer they took.  The 3 pointers that they did miss they were fouled.  Almost everyone in our pool got a win, so really this win does not mean much unless you were one of the few that didn't pick Wofford.

(1) Iona completely dismantled (6) Monmouth to win the MAAC championship.  Only 8 people in our pool picked Iona to win the championship, which made this a critical win for those 8 people.  Iona literally wins this conference every single year, regardless of seeding, so to me this seemed like an easy pick.

Standings

You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through the end of Monday night.  I am assuming St. Mary's beats San Diego.  It's incredible that we are 8 days into conference tournaments and our leader only has 4 points.  No matter where you are at in the standings, you are still in this, we have never seen only 4 points this far in.

• John is still in 1st and still has the best winning % which means he's not losing many teams, but other people are catching up to him in winning %
• Andrew is in 2nd with a really good winning % and matching John in max points
• Brad in 3rd with a good winning %, but his Max Points are a lot lower
• Jenn and Searcy in 3rd and 4th with the same winning % and same Max Points

Southern Conference and MAAC Championships Tonight

While we do have 2 conference championship games being played tonight, we will still have about 15 non championship games in action.  All games are now conference tournament games, the college basketball regular season is officially over.  We will see guaranteed pool losses in the Horizon League, Colonial Conference, and Summit League.  Below is a preview of both championship games tonight.

Southern Conference

• This is the expected match-up and it is between (1) Wofford and (2) UNC Greensboro.
• 25 picks in our pool, which is 75.53% is on Wofford.  Team Rankings did give Wofford a 50% change to win this conference tournament so we may have overreached by a few picks, but we do have 2 people with UNC Greensboro.
• While it is not bonus points, if Pengin Pro and TrainGuy get the UNC Greensboro win they will go from the bottom of the standings to the top of the standings.
• Vegas has Wofford winning this game by 7 points.

MAAC

• (1) Iona will match up against (6) Monmouth, nobody picked Monmouth.
• Monmouth lost 12 straight conference games, they stink, it would be crazy if they win tonight.
• 8 people picked Iona, so an Iona win really helps to move people towards the top of the standings.  With 2 wins tonight TrainGuy can jump from dead last Sunday Morning to the Top 5.  That is how quickly things can change this early on.
• Team Rankings predicted (5) Rider to win this tournament and we were aligned as we had 12 people pick Rider, so that didn't work out.
• Vegas has this as a close game, Iona is favored by 4 points.



Gardner-Webb Going to the NCAA Tournament for the First Time Ever

The Big South championship was won by the (4) Gardner-Webb Bulldogs, and this is the first time they have ever gone to the NCAA Tournament.  It only took us 2 conference championship games this year to get our first bonus point team as Gardner-Webb is a 4 seed.  (1) Radford was never really in this game, Gardner-Webb led wire to wire.  Wattles is the first person in our pool to get a bonus point.

In the Missouri Valley championship game we saw (5) Bradley comeback from trailing by double digits late in the game to beat (6) Northern Iowa.  Nobody in our pool had Bradley so no points at all are awarded in the Missouri Valley conference.  We did have 2 people that picked Northern Iowa, if Northern Iowa would have won it really would have separated the standings and pretty much clinched the pot for lowest winning seed.

The final championship game today was in the Atlantic Sun and (2) Liberty was able to go to (1) Lipscomb and beat them on their home court.  The majority of our pool had Lipscomb, but 6 people were able to get points from Liberty.  No bonus points were awarded.  This game went back and forth all day, but in the end Liberty was able to pull it out.

We are now 1 week into championship week, we have 4 tickets punched, and more than half of our pool has at least 1 win, but no one has more than 2 points.  Everyone is still in this, no one is even close to being eliminated as no one has been able to separate from the pack yet.  Usually by this point we have 1-2 people that separate themselves from the pack, but that is not the case this year.  This really is one of the more unpredictable years in college basketball.

Standings

You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through the end of Sunday night.  All conference tournament seeds are finalized.  We did have some seeding changes across most conferences, the biggest impact was in the Big 10 as Michigan State is no longer worth bonus points, but Michigan is.

• John is in 1st and also has the best winning % which means he's not losing many teams
• B.I. is right behind him and has more max points available due to potential bonus wins
• Jenn is in the Top 3!
• Wattles is only in the top 4 due to Gardner-Webb, he has the lowest winning % which means he's lost a bunch of future teams already

Conference Championship Preview: Big South, Missouri Valley, and Atlantic Sun

Big South

• The first championship game of the day will be between (4) Gardner-Webb and (2) Radford.
• 12 people in the pool have Radford winning this conference and the lone person on Gardner-Webb is Wattles.  Because Gardner-Webb is bonus points, a win here would put Wattles in 1st place by himself.
• Before the conference tournament started, Team Rankings predicted Radford to win the championship, this aligns with our overall pick

Missouri Valley Conference

• The second championship game today is by far the oddest match-up with (6) Northern Iowa vs. (5) Bradley, the top 4 seeds were all knocked out
• While none of us picked Bradley, we do have 2 people that actually picked Northern Iowa, so bonus points are at stake.  Almost half of us thought that Loyola Chicago was going to win this conference and Team Rankings agreed, we all got tricked by Sister Jean
• If Northern Iowa wins this not only will Ryan and B.I. be in 1st place, they'll have a great shot at splitting the "Lowest Winning Seed" pot of money.  It's going to be hard for another 6 seed or worse win.

Atlantic Sun Conference

• Depending how the previous 2 championships turn out, this should be the least impact conference as championship as most of the pool is still alive.  No bonus points are available since it is top seeds (2) Liberty vs. (1) Lipscomb.
• 22 are on Lipscomb, they have been the favorite all year and Team Rankings along with Vegas thinks they should win easily.
• 6 are on Liberty, so while it is not bonus points, a Liberty win will really start to separate the Top and Bottom of the standings.

Standings and Blog

You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through Sunday at 11:00 AM CST.  28 out of the 32 conference tournament seeds are finalized, all seeds will be finalized by tonight's update.  We did have some seeding changes across most conferences, the biggest impact was in the SEC as Kentucky is no longer worth bonus points, but Tennessee is.

Murray State Clinches the 1st NCAA Tournament Birth of 2019

We have our first ticket punched for 2019 with the Ohio Valley conference tournament champion (2) Murray State.  Our 1st champion is not a 1 seed, but also is not worth any bonus points.  We are starting to get some more clarity in the standings now that we have an actual conference tournament champion, and a win on the board for 13 people.  We still have 31 more champions coming over the next 8 days so don't be discouraged if you still have a 0 next to your name.

Standings and Blog

You can get to the Standings by clicking on Standings, everything is up to date through the entire day Saturday.  The Top 5 are in great shape, but everything can change drastically tomorrow as we have 3 championship games.

If you are not checking out the Blog everyday then you're missing constant updates to the standings and conference tournaments.

https://2019conferencetournamentchallenge.blogspot.com/

Everything Else

Today was a brutal day for favorites across almost all conference tournaments, and as a pool we collectively racked up 131 losses since we started.  We also saw many of our solid bonus point picks lose today.  Starting in the Northeast conference, this was the only conference where we saw favorites advance.  The championship game match up will be (1) St. Francis PA vs. (2) Fairleigh Dickinson.  Popular bonus point picks (3) Robert Morris and (6) LIU Brooklyn lost.

In the America East (2) Stony Brook lost, in the MAAC popular bonus point picks (3) Quinnipiac and (4) Rider are out, in the Summit League (1) South Dakota State is shockingly out with a loss to (8) Western Illinois, and proving God does not exist, (1) Loyola Chicago is out.  RIP Sister Jean.

Before Sunday, 3/11 afternoon I will post a comprehensive look at the 3 conference championship games that are being played Sunday.  We're also starting to see conference seeds finalized for the rest of the conferences, as that happens we'll see the standings shift as seeding changes.  The only conference seeding that will not be updated when I post Sunday morning are the American and Big 10.